Turkey and the EU: one step closer... to Tuxit?

Inspired by Trump's victory and Brexit, Turkey's president Tayyip Erdogan proposed to hold a referendum on EU accession in 2017.

The Council of the EU, represented by all the EU countries' foreign affairs Ministers, discussed the situation in Turkey on Monday 14 November.

Istanbul: to EU or not to EU? (c)

This follows the publication of the so-called 'progress report' on Turkey a few days earlier, reporting how Turkey evolves as an country applying to become member of the EU.

It isn't the first time the Turkish president criticised the EU - and it won't be the last time. Seeing the political opportunity amidst increasing Euroscepticism, might just not be working for Turkey.

At the end of 2015, 56% of surveyed Turks thought they would benefit from EU membership, against 30% who don't. It is lower than about a decade earlier (63 - 27), but still not in Erdogan's favour.

Still, the EU isn't going to pace up with the progress reports' phrases like: 'Corruption (...) remains a serious problem', 'high numbers of arrests of journalists', or 'efforts continued at a limited pace'.

The country with the 5th most jailed journalists (before the coup!) will have to work more to respect the rule of law, adopt all EU legislation and normalise relationships with Cyprus. And that's entirely up to Turkey, referendum or not.

No story, no votes

Do you know Donald Trump's slogan? Sure you do. Do you know Hillary Clinton's slogan? (silence)... And that's why Trump won. Without a story, no votes to win. Just because Clinton is a woman, that doesn't entitle her to anything.

Sure, Trump bashed the establishment. And 'the establishment', by the voice of Clinton, doesn't know how to bash an outsider, especially a reckless, insulting person that broke every rule an aspiring president shouldn't. But the establishment will be back in just a few sentences.

(c)

A story we've already heard in the Brexit campaign. Why bother using rational arguments in an irrational debate? Again, 'the establishment' was defeated. As in the US elections, the polls were wrong: people reply in polls in a socially acceptable way. They feel ashamed they choose the irrational vote. But in the end, no one's asking who they're voting for when they're at the ballot.

But the establishment is back in the Brexit. Judges in the United Kingdom ruled Parliament should vote on the Brexit - strange a Prime Minister is scared of her own Parliament, isn't it supposed to represent the people?

Also, it took the Prime Minister over 3 months to decide when exactly the procedure to leave the EU would start. In the first quarter of 2017. 6 months is an eternity in politics - who knows what will happen by then.

Regarding Trump, he'll have to deal with Congress and his own Republican party to get bills passed. Something Trump has about 0 clue how that has to happen, but that might be an advantage. Trump will have to hold press conferences and meetings - with Latin American leaders as well as females.

Trump will have a whole number of advisors with plenty of 'establishment' experience. Trump will have to deal with administrators from every US administration. In other words, Trump will be confronted with establishment about every day. Difficult not to become part of establishment.

A little Belgian story: a rather anti-establishment political party of whose prime goal is the independence of Flanders, has been in the federal government for years. Not one step closer to independence, but much more part of the establishment. Will the same happen to Trump?

Even if we don't know the answer, we can list his name between Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and George Washington.